Since 2022, over 70 percent of elections worldwide resulted in an incumbent loss. The United States followed this trend with republican candidate, Former President Donald Trump, winning both the popular and electoral votes. An incumbent loss in the US is not a rare thing; the past three presidential elections have resulted in the winning party flipping. In many other countries, however, the incumbent losses were much more historical.
This year, Japan’s long ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LPD) lost their parliamentary election with 215 seats, 18 seats below what they needed to win. The current prime minister and leader of the LDP plans on remaining in office despite the loss, having only been sworn in days before the election. This loss is still significant as the party hasn’t lost the parliamentary majority in nearly two decades.
The LDP had been caught up in multiple scandals, resulting in it becoming overwhelmingly unpopular among the Japanese public. According to a BBC News article, the election followed a “tumultuous few years” for the party. It came out in November of 2023 that millions of dollars raised as funding for the LDP were being put into private accounts, violating multiple political financing laws. This along with the country’s economic struggles is what led to the party’s loss.
In most cases, when an incumbent party loses an election, it’s because of a poor economy, scandals, or both. In a survey done by the Pew Research Center in June of this year, it was found that in only nine of the 34 countries surveyed did the majority believe that their economy was in good standing. Poor perceptions of a country’s economy leaves the populace looking for change and, in cases like this, results in an incumbent loss.
In the United States, only around 23 percent of people said that economic conditions were favorable. This is in spite of the fact that the consumer price index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) have both seen a decrease by 6.5 percent (CPI) and 4.8 percent (PCE) since their peaks in 2022. These are both measurements of inflation and their reduction is a positive sign for the current economic status of the US.
The incumbent party lost the US presidential election primarily because of economic misconceptions like this, as well as other pressing issues like national security and foreign policy. Trump repeatedly mentioned these issues throughout his campaign, promising tighter border security and the removal of illegal immigrants. This appealed to the country’s majority, winning him the presidency. His opposition, Kamala Harris, tended to be associated with issues like healthcare and abortion rights, which most voters didn’t view as more pressing than those that Trump spoke on.
Post-pandemic, many countries faced severe inflation, according to ABC News, “Most countries have seen soaring inflation and stagnant or painfully slow economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic.” These issues led to a surplus of voters seeking change in elections worldwide this year. The global political climate had simply been set up for several incumbent losses in 2024 and the years to come.
